It depends how the conflict starts. If China launches a sneak attack with no warning then they would have a pretty good chance of taking out whichever two or three carriers happen to be in the western Pacific Ocean at the time. But if the conflict starts with a minor incident and then escalates the US Navy might have a chance to shoot down most Chinese reconasaince satellites first. Those antiship IRBMs have limited sensors and guidance so they have to be precisely targeted at launch to have a chance of hitting anything. The best way to do targeting is with a constellation of radar satellites, but those satellites are relatively easy to shoot down.
No country right now has a monopoly on ASAT technology and geosynchronous satellites are not exactly uncommon either. Should ASAT be used in a regional conflict, the entire world's access to space could easily be denied due to the after effects. It unlikely that shooting down satellites would be the first choice in a small conflict.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Radar reconnaissance satellites are in lower orbits, not geosynchronous. Any conflict between nuclear armed superpowers wouldn't be small, and avoiding orbital debris wouldn't be a priority.
USA's big demonstration of its anti-satellite capability was at only 250km. Sandbagged, perhaps, but we don't know. Again I feel it is much, much more likely that both sides will simply try to take over the other side's space assets, rather than using kinetic anti-satellite weapons that litter space with tiny chunks of garbage.
> might have a chance to shoot down most Chinese reconnaissance satellites first… The best way to do targeting is with a constellation of radar satellites, but those satellites are relatively easy to shoot down…
Seems wasteful, better to have root access (like via X-37b) to them now ahead of time and reroute attacks en route in real time if/when the time comes. Using enemy infrastructure to take out their own seems most efficient.
The whole "Hack A Satellite"[0] partnered with USAF and DDS seems like its leaning operationally in that direction more and more for at least recruitment.
The NRO do apparently have football field sized antenna arrays parked near comm sats, so I would guess the hack the satellite thing was to find how much further ahead they are rather than as a proof of concept
If you are considering cyberwarfare the targeting of satellites of weapon systems, and not what most people consider cyberwarfare, I think all sides would be prudent to target such capabilities equally.
