Just a second though, betting markets are intrinsically subject to manipulation! Both in the markets themselves and in the world that the gamblers are purportedly "observing". The betters have active agency in the world they are betting on. The only thing stopping people who participate in these "markets" from manipulating outcomes in unethical, coercive ways is: nothing at all. The betting markets only serve to raise the stakes and create a medium for perverse incentives to play out. So yeah, in some cases or might be more "accurate", but what about the risks? At what cost?
Yeah, there have been a few interesting cases of soccer players betting on their own transfer results (I.e betting that they will be sold to a specific club), which of course they would have inside information on
Check out this conversation between Mike Tyson and Michael Franzese about how athletes repay gambling related debts owed to mafia bookmakers: https://youtu.be/lNlR3lfnLR8?t=2990
"I gotta tell you about athletes: they're not good gamblers, they're really not"
