I don't look through these very deeply but just as an example your link shows that the highest rated prediction on Nov 1st was 242-245 which is actually higher than 538's average.
Yeah I just looked at the distribution on close of Nov 2. The modal bucket was 246+, and the p50 if you convert to a quantitative variable was about 238, which is almost right in line with 538. Ultimately I think the huge difference with betting markets v. 538 for this market was they had higher variance and fatter tails, which could possibly point to a win for 538, EVEN if 538 were legitimately biased!
We'll simply never know without 1000 realizations of this election but next cycle I'd like Nate Silver to bet money whenever he finds mispriced events/odds and show how much money he makes to strengthen the case that his model is an improvement.
