There was zero chance they'd have nominated Trump in 2016 too, at first. Maybe it's hard to remember what a joke he was at the beginning, and even through most of the campaign. I'd say the chances are much higher than zero that the pro-Trump base would win him the nomination again if he ran. It's easy to imagine him pulling media stunts for the next 4 years in preparation for just that.
- He gave hope to blue-collar workers, mostly white but not exclusively, who increasingly felt left behind by globalism and the tech-centric economy. This let him steal votes from Democrats as people wanted to try something different. Trump's rhetoric was tailored to them("drain the swamp", immigration crackdowns, economic warfare, etc).
- He fired up the right-wing base of the party and got them to show up at the polls. This caused increased enthusiasm and helped drive turnout of all GOP leaning voters I believe.
Also, let's not forget that Hillary Clinton, rightly or wrongly, was just not a very likeable candidate with broad appeal. She did win the popular vote, but as we all know that is meaningless.
Now we've had 4 years to see what Trump was capable of. His primary opponents will be able to point to his record instead of just his promises. I don't think Trump will come back for another round. He'll be too old in 4 years, and won't want to risk being a loser again. Also, don't forget that he has pending legal and financial issues to sort out after his presidency is over.
I suspect you will see someone else, maybe someone from the Trump family, run again with a Trump-like platform. They may very well win if the Democrats can't recalibrate their platform to appeal to more voters in electorally important states. I'm seeing a lot of wishful thinking regarding getting rid of the electoral college and it is frankly laughable. It's not happening anytime in the next 50 years. Small states will never give up that power. The best you could do is convince GOP leaders in 'purpling' states like TX to opt for a proportional assignment strategy to rob the Dems of the entire block of electoral votes once the state goes fully blue.
I think people would be disappointed by the Biden presidency. He cant do anything to fight globalization. The wages will average out world over. Rich countries will be the first to face the worst of it.
This will support a authotorian wave in the coming few years. They will just need to attack from the left.
Trump running would be their worst nightmare and a boon for Democrats. Very old, super-unfiltered and record-breaking as the first national candidate to run from prison (not out of the question). He could easily be the Ross Perot version 2.0 that nobody wants.
