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Their cautiousness made sense. Projections just before the election showed a lot steeper win for Biden. It didn't play out that way so it makes sense to be cautious.

Trump had a lot more support among some demographics than people expected. as the race got tighter it made sense to doubt what might play out.




> Their cautiousness made sense. Projections just before the election showed a lot steeper win for Biden.

You need to distinguish between the national vote, which met projections with a significant dem majority, and state races, some of which were close, which is also what was predicted.


State level projections in swing states were off by 7 points.

Why were the polls so wrong again?


Which projection was off by 7 points?


Let's take: Pennsylvania

These polls are from November 1.

Targoz Market Research was really off. 56 to 42

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e28be4ccb16eb0aa6496...

New York Times 42-49

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az-fl-pa-wi/bc6b622f3...


I am distinguishing between the popular vote...

I honestly don't recall much in the way of news about the popular vote projections. Probably because folks were more concerned with other things.




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