The question is when that will happen, because obviously the powerful interests running Big Software are almost all heavily invested in promoting the cloud model for now since they're the ones most able to benefit from it. It wouldn't surprise me if the effective opposition eventually comes from some sort of grass roots movement towards open hardware and open software, even if it takes a decade or more, rather than from any of the established tech giants voluntarily changing strategy within that time frame. It's just a shame about all the billions we're going to waste due to lost productivity and security/privacy problems with the dumbed down software and corporate exploitation that will be the norm for IT in the meantime. :-(

Would be nice to see, however I see it coming more from one of the major players screwing up - whether a large scale hack, huge amounts of downtime or a verrrry public issue migrating a high value customer, regulatory break up, or pushing prices just too high.

For a large amount of users of Microsoft's products in enterprises, local government, even SMBs, the experience will likely be better though. "Dumbed down" software is a feature, not a bug. Usage based renting is a preference, compared to large scale IT capex.

I'm just waiting for the O365 + Surface subscriptions to start (unless I've missed it and they have already?). Hardware, software and services for one monthly payment. They're already doing something similar for Xbox and the Game Pass in some markets I believe.

> rather than from any of the established tech giants voluntarily changing strategy within that time frame

They'll go where the money takes them. If the market starts moving, they'll undoubtedly stick their toes in the water. If the current picks up, they'll look to turn the ship to go along with it.

All of the above being said, it still I think reinforces the point that Microsoft's shift from boxed software to services is superbly well done. Whether or not we want that as our future, they've handled the shift toward the current vision of the future well.

I would really like to agree with that, but no matter how much they screw up, it won't matter if there isn't a viable alternative strategy anyway. With basically all of Big Tech pushing the same way right now, I think the momentum is too much for any of those things to cause a significant change in direction in the near future.

We've already seen some pretty horrendous failures in terms of reliability, privacy and security. Some of them have come from some very big names. And yet so far I see little if any consequence, other than perhaps some regulatory slaps on the wrist. The big customers paying the big bills are still paying, because what choice do they have? It doesn't gain them much to migrate to a competitor that is still pushing in the same basic direction and vulnerable to the same basic threats, and migrations of key software at corporate scale are financially expensive and have timescales measured in years so there's a big incentive to accept the devil you know.

All of the above being said, it still I think reinforces the point that Microsoft's shift from boxed software to services is superbly well done. Whether or not we want that as our future, they've handled the shift toward the current vision of the future well.

Indeed. As I wrote in another comment, it's tough to argue with success. It's unfortunate that Microsoft's success here doesn't necessarily correlate positively with a better experience for the users of Microsoft software, and the lack of competition for the desktop market is going to leave a lot of people and businesses vulnerable to whatever Microsoft decides is best for Microsoft over the next few years.

Of the possible big events you mentioned, I suspect that means regulatory break-up in an attempt to rejuvenate effective competition in the market is the most promising. But I still wouldn't bet on that happening faster than a grass roots effort powered by the kinds of people who believe in things like rights to repair and meaningful online privacy, and who enjoy writing their own software or experimenting with things like 3D printers and Raspberry Pis. A young generation might take a different view of programming and hobbyist hardware than those 20 or 40 years older who have perhaps become too accepting of the way things are. They might be driven by not wanting to feel trapped by big businesses they think aren't acting in their best interests, or perhaps other concerns about longevity and adaptability driven by positive motivations from outside of pure tech fields, such as protecting the environment. Given the right figurehead(s) to lead a movement, I could believe that might actually happen, but probably over the next decade or two more than the next year or two.