I see the appeal in using the return as a way of judging the bet, but I think it's too simplistic.
Reason #1: In investing, you can do everything right and still lose money. This is because there is never certitude, and you can only play the odds.
So, if you make a bet with a 90% chance of winning, and yet you still lose, was that a bad bet?
Reason #2: Most people like to think stock prices reflect reality somehow and the mechanism through which that happens is people buying or selling stock to reach price equilibrium. So, in that sense, a good bet would be one that pushes the price towards reality.
Reason #1: In investing, you can do everything right and still lose money. This is because there is never certitude, and you can only play the odds.
So, if you make a bet with a 90% chance of winning, and yet you still lose, was that a bad bet?
Reason #2: Most people like to think stock prices reflect reality somehow and the mechanism through which that happens is people buying or selling stock to reach price equilibrium. So, in that sense, a good bet would be one that pushes the price towards reality.