Accurate estimation is certainly possible and is practiced by professionals, I do it myself. It's a skill though and it requires ground work in advance. Those interested may find discussion of some methods in McConnell's "Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art". Humphrey's PSP materials are an earlier but useful source of information.
The skill is irrelevant in most workplaces though. In most cases time to do an estimation is forbidden, and in the rare cases where an accurate estimation is produced, it is replaced with management's wishful-thinking estimate instead, which insecure developers are often strong-armed into "agreeing" to.
Replacing an accurate estimate with wishful thinking and whipping the slaves to go faster does not mean accurate estimates are impossible. It means that there is a problem with endemic management incompetence and unprofessionalism throughout this industry. If you have not established a track record of accurate estimates, you shouldn't be managing in any capacity at all. I don't expect this to happen though. I fully expect incompetent unprofessional management to continue to be the rule throughout most of the industry because there is little sincere interest in fixing things compared to maintaining empires ruled by fools. The preferred system is of blaming developers for bad estimates that were forced upon them by management, or that were produced by people who have no idea how to estimate and who are given no tools or training in how to do so.
What a relief it is not to be working for such incompetent management and be on my own. To those whose bosses are bullying them into giving bogus estimates and then blamed when things go wrong, you have my sympathies.
The skill is irrelevant in most workplaces though. In most cases time to do an estimation is forbidden, and in the rare cases where an accurate estimation is produced, it is replaced with management's wishful-thinking estimate instead, which insecure developers are often strong-armed into "agreeing" to.
Replacing an accurate estimate with wishful thinking and whipping the slaves to go faster does not mean accurate estimates are impossible. It means that there is a problem with endemic management incompetence and unprofessionalism throughout this industry. If you have not established a track record of accurate estimates, you shouldn't be managing in any capacity at all. I don't expect this to happen though. I fully expect incompetent unprofessional management to continue to be the rule throughout most of the industry because there is little sincere interest in fixing things compared to maintaining empires ruled by fools. The preferred system is of blaming developers for bad estimates that were forced upon them by management, or that were produced by people who have no idea how to estimate and who are given no tools or training in how to do so.
What a relief it is not to be working for such incompetent management and be on my own. To those whose bosses are bullying them into giving bogus estimates and then blamed when things go wrong, you have my sympathies.