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> Can you explain how their capex is decreasing

Capital efficiency. It should not be surprising that a greenfield factory built in China based on a spec you iterated on in Fremont, CA results in a much higher $/Cars/Day, a.k.a capital efficiency. Iterating on a live line in Fremont, CA is significantly more costly. It's like $/sq ft. for renovating your house versus buying new.

Also, look at the flow diagrams they've published on the floor layout and the path through a factory a car takes to go from start to finish in Fremont vs. GF3. This is also why they're moving to Austin.

> By the way, what's a "delivery"? I don't think I've ever seen them define it.

Of course they define it. In their Annual Report, under a section titled "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates", under a sub-section titled "Automotive Segment - Automotive Sales Revenue";

We recognize revenue on automotive sales upon delivery to the customer, which is when the control of a vehicle transfers. Payments are typically received at the point control transfers or in accordance with payment terms customary to the business.

> and yet they build inventory. Very opaque.

I'm not sure what you're asking here.




flow diagrams they've published on the floor layout and the path through a factory a car takes to go from start to finish in Fremont vs. GF3.

URL? I found a 2016 Fremont planned layout http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive/ODN/SanFranciscoChron... and a 2019 Fremont layout https://villanyautosok.hu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019_09... plus GF4 images https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipOVTM-avTBP0VMbqc3dynh6... No comparison of process flow, which would be very interesting. All I found was https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0173/8204/7844/articles/Te... which seems to have more to do with combining multiple buildings than altering process.


Yes, your last link was what I was thinking of. It’s page ~16 of 2019 Q4 Letter:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c9...


It appears to be the same process. Reading junk on the internet the main process innovation they appear to have made appears is large scale die casting to produce entire chassis frames in a single aluminium part. This - like most "innovations" - is less an innovation and more adopting a known process with different tradeoffs, increasing initial capital outlay to obtain enhanced production speed and a simplified production process.

In vehicle manufacturing process engineering, an interesting recent startup is UK brand 'Arrival' who decided to avoid stamped chassis parts entirely and instead assemble from sheet and extrusions (IIRC). They can allegedly assemble a whole van in a 1000m2 'microfactory' and have just brought out a bus concept. https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/20/arrival-moves-into-new-... https://www.pesmedia.com/arrival-bicester-electric-van-manuf... https://www.pesmedia.com/arrival-zero-emissions-bus-17062020... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrival_(company) 3B valuation.




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