> The virus has not mapped neatly onto American political narratives, either. While some questions remain about their accounting, Georgia and Florida—where leaders opened up early and residents seemed relatively defiant of public-health advice—have seen relatively flat numbers, while California, which took a more conservative approach, has seen cases grow. The state most poised for major trouble seems to be Arizona, where the outbreak is spreading very quickly. Not only is the state (which lifted its stay-at-home order on May 16) setting new records for positive tests and people in the hospital, but the percentage of tests that are coming back positive is also growing. So much for warm weather and sunshine alone stamping out viral transmission, as some had hoped: Phoenix saw only a single day’s high under 90 degrees during May. The state’s age demographics also haven’t played an obvious role: The state is slightly younger than the U.S. as a whole.
This may be the most striking thing at the moment. The pandemic isn't evenly distributed in the US. Several factors compound the problem, including:
1. the time between the enactment of policy and the consequences varies
2. there may be an underlying seasonal component that's modulating stats in certain states
3. states show varying degrees of commitment to complete, accurate reporting of test results and rigor
4. positivity rates (# positive results vs # of tests) are rarely, if ever reported so it's nearly impossible to assign weight to increases or decreases in cases/fatalities
Throw this all together and you get one big, fat mess. It's nearly impossible to figure out exactly what's happening with respect to viral spread or why. National-level efforts to track or contain the spread are weak at best.
We should all hope that point (2) is not a major factor in this. If it is, a bigger, badder sequel of the early spring, starting around fall seems inevitable.
This may be the most striking thing at the moment. The pandemic isn't evenly distributed in the US. Several factors compound the problem, including:
1. the time between the enactment of policy and the consequences varies
2. there may be an underlying seasonal component that's modulating stats in certain states
3. states show varying degrees of commitment to complete, accurate reporting of test results and rigor
4. positivity rates (# positive results vs # of tests) are rarely, if ever reported so it's nearly impossible to assign weight to increases or decreases in cases/fatalities
Throw this all together and you get one big, fat mess. It's nearly impossible to figure out exactly what's happening with respect to viral spread or why. National-level efforts to track or contain the spread are weak at best.
We should all hope that point (2) is not a major factor in this. If it is, a bigger, badder sequel of the early spring, starting around fall seems inevitable.