> The premise that we are on the verge of some breakthroughs in software development that will significantly reduce the need for engineers is really weak
We are on the brink of economic contraction which is forcing a rethinking for the need of software engineers. The necessary disruption is there. It is economic, not technological.
Yes, there will continue to be a need for software engineers, but business expectations will change as budgets will adjust. I suspect fewer developers will be needed moving forward and those developers will be required to directly own decisions and consequences, which has not been the case in most large corporations.
> In my experience, software engineering is endless, complicated decision making about how something should work and how to make changes without breaking something else rather than the nuts and bolts of programming.
Agreed, but that is not the typical work culture around software development. Thanks to things like Agile and Scrum developers are often isolated from the tactical decisions that impact how they should execute their work, and for good reason. While some seasoned senior developers are comfortable owning and documenting the complex decisions you speak of many are not so comfortable and require precise and highly refined guidance to perform any work. This is attributable to a lack of forced mentoring and mitigated by process.
We are on the brink of economic contraction which is forcing a rethinking for the need of software engineers. The necessary disruption is there. It is economic, not technological.
Yes, there will continue to be a need for software engineers, but business expectations will change as budgets will adjust. I suspect fewer developers will be needed moving forward and those developers will be required to directly own decisions and consequences, which has not been the case in most large corporations.
> In my experience, software engineering is endless, complicated decision making about how something should work and how to make changes without breaking something else rather than the nuts and bolts of programming.
Agreed, but that is not the typical work culture around software development. Thanks to things like Agile and Scrum developers are often isolated from the tactical decisions that impact how they should execute their work, and for good reason. While some seasoned senior developers are comfortable owning and documenting the complex decisions you speak of many are not so comfortable and require precise and highly refined guidance to perform any work. This is attributable to a lack of forced mentoring and mitigated by process.