Another aspect of Russia taking crimea is that the people living there to a large extent welcomed it.
There are some that are pro-unification in Taiwan, but it's a minority. Most people are pro status quo, and the number that are for declaring independence is growing. The ruling party is very pro-independence (ideologically speaking, in practice they have to move slowly and maintain status quo to some degree), meaning releasing their claim over mainland China, changing name from "Republic of China" or "China" to Taiwan, seeking UN membership etc.
The other big difference is that Taiwan is quite capable of defending itself to some extent. China will win eventually, but not without devastating the island. This will affect everyone economically. China and the world. If TSMCs factories in Taiwan are destroyed, it'd have an enormous impact on world economy. The production of high-tech electronics would be stunted for years. Russia annexing crimea had absolutely no practical effect on the world.
The fact is that everyone, China included, is relatively happy with the status quo. The CCP has to make a scene now and then to appease the fragile ego of a large portion of the mainland chinese. But I really don't think they actually care that much about invading Taiwan.
I have visited Crimea last year as a tourist and talked with Crimeans personally (in Massandra and Alushta). Where do you get your information? In my experience people are mostly happy with the Russian rule and with changes it brings (simply compare investments before 2014 and after). Of course, those who work in IT, have to virtually reallocate via VPNs to circumvent western sanctions, but they don't blame Russia for that (and VPN is a must-have either way for tech savy due to the Roskompozor). One common complaint was somewhat higher prices, but situation got a bit better after the Crimean bridge got put into operation. Also another complaint which I heard is that new government is much stricter about tax collection and preventing illegal business. Yes, Crimean Tatars a bit less happy with the Russian rule on average compared to ethnic Russians, but I think it mostly can be attributed to the lost profits from illegal businesses, significant amount of which was traditionally operated by tatars (see the issue of illegal construction). But it's important to note that they got much more freedom in respect of cultural autonomy than they had in Ukraine (their language is now official republican language on par with Russian and Ukranian). Only after Ukraine lost Crimea they have started to talk about an autonomy for Tatars, which is quite pathetic in my opinion.
> Crimean Tatars a bit less happy with the Russian rule on average compared to ethnic Russians, but I think it mostly can be attributed to the lost profits from illegal businesses
It’s a bit more complicated than that. The historical and relatively recent mass starvation, persecution, mass murder and forcing into gulags is likely relevant. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars
Note that not only Tatars have died from mass starvation in 30s and 40s. It hit equally hard Russians, Ukrainians and other ethnic groups (e.g. it had consequences as far as in the Volga region), so Tatars (as well as Ukrainians) weren't an exclusive target here. AFAIK Tatars weren't forced into Gulags without proofs of collaboration with Nazi forces (the number is estimated around 15k, which is only approximately 5% of the total Tatar population). And while the deportation is indeed should be condemned, as the significant death toll which was a consequence of it (though I wouldn't call it a "mass murder"), I don't think it's correct to attribute Soviet deeds to the modern Russia, especially considering the Russian rehabilitation law specifically targeting Crimean Tatars.
While I will not deny that a certain amount of bad blood still exists due to the deportation, I think most Tatars more concerned about their current livelihood (though I have talked only with 2 tatars, so my sample size is quite small).
The Wikipedia article states that 191,044-423,100 Tarters were deported, depending on which source is used (this doesn’t mean they all went to Gulags, but hard labour in Uzbekistan was what most did). It’s described as ethnic cleansing and mentioning the Tarters was banned. Baria and Stalin’s actions killed 34,000 to 109,956 Tarters during this time and 80,000 homes and farms lay empty.
I had an ethnically Russian co-worker from Donetsk at a previous job right around the time Russia started "supporting" the rebels there (i.e. sending in a large number of their own troops as "tourists" etc.) and while he personally hated Russia, he lamented that the vast majority of his extended family back in the Donetsk region supported and welcomed the Russians
I got the impression Putin used social media, e.g. VK, to manipulate people's opinions, eg untrue "news" about people from Russia being harassed and worse.
Seemed like successful psyops by Putin to me. I guess if Ukraine had blocked VK sooner, not many people had been particularly much pro Putin.
Of course now Putin continues with psyops via Facebook but that's harder for him than via VK.
It's quite well known if you venture outside the mainstream media.
For example there were opinion polls done by western polling orgs in Crimea where the vast majority supported unification with Russia. It's not hard to understand. Salaries in Russia are ~10x what they are in Ukraine for the same job. Economically they're not comparable, and that's before you get to the whole conflict in Ukraine starting because the government was overthrown by rebels supporting a new government that amongst its first acts, banned the Russian language.
Remember that Ukraine's response to the peaceful annexation was to cut off Crimea's entire electricity supply. That's hardly the work of a friendly government trying to help its loved citizens. Russia had to send in generator ships, if I recall correctly.
I'm from Moscow and I have relatives in Crimea. I've visited them in 90s and then in 2000s. Most of Crimea citizens are 'soviet' pro-russian people. They are happy to get russian pension and all that infrastructure porjects money cause Russia is a really rich country compared to Ukraine.
So if more than 50% of population haven't welcomed Russians, then Crimea now has twice less population, right?
It's very easy to attribute such disappearances to the evil KGB to promote political agenda, while there are far more probable explanations. It brings to mind the "Heavenly Hundred", a significant number of those people haven't even died on Maidan, but to promote the political agenda they have been promoted to national heroes, even though their "heroism" is dubious at best.
And don't tell me that's organic that suddenly bunch of big guy "civilians" appear and start using force. We have heard about green little men. So there are gray little civilians also.
And Crimea does not need to loose 50% population that does not agree. It's enough to "disappear" few more prominent activists to scare the rest.
Severe repression for some and a welcoming majority are not mutually exclusive. This is why politics are complicated, especially in regions that were passed around for decades or centuries and have very mixed population.
There are some that are pro-unification in Taiwan, but it's a minority. Most people are pro status quo, and the number that are for declaring independence is growing. The ruling party is very pro-independence (ideologically speaking, in practice they have to move slowly and maintain status quo to some degree), meaning releasing their claim over mainland China, changing name from "Republic of China" or "China" to Taiwan, seeking UN membership etc.
The other big difference is that Taiwan is quite capable of defending itself to some extent. China will win eventually, but not without devastating the island. This will affect everyone economically. China and the world. If TSMCs factories in Taiwan are destroyed, it'd have an enormous impact on world economy. The production of high-tech electronics would be stunted for years. Russia annexing crimea had absolutely no practical effect on the world.
The fact is that everyone, China included, is relatively happy with the status quo. The CCP has to make a scene now and then to appease the fragile ego of a large portion of the mainland chinese. But I really don't think they actually care that much about invading Taiwan.