Tether itself is manipulated lol, even if I short it in Kraken I'm still playing Bitfinex's game. Once 30% of their reserves were seized they remained 1:1 -- there's no way to win whether I'm right or wrong.
There is a short play here: if there's ever a bank run on Tether, it'll crash to 0. The bet would be to hold onto this short and wait for this event to happen, but given how banks survive with fractional reserve banking, it's entirely possible that a bank run will never happen.
True, though I'd also have to have faith that the exchange remains solvent and that an upwards run in Tether (and it does run up ~10% from time to time) doesn't blow through my collateral -- on top of my other concerns. I think there's easier ways to make money, after all Madoff's scam took 40 years to unravel. I'm not willing to wait that long.
