It's fair to say that NYC was stretched to the limit, and certainly stretched farther than anyone would want, but it is hard to make a claim that hospitals were overwhelmed anywhere like predicted. New York hospitalizations peaked at 18,825[0], while Cuomo predicted they would need 30,000 additional ventilators. The expanded bed capacity in New York reached 90,000 at Cuomo's command[0]. There is no known case of an american not receiving a ventilator if needed [1][2].
And, remember disease models did not just predict unmitigated spread. They absolutely incorporated percentages of social distancing into their models. The original imperial college study predicted that a high income county with around 50% social contact reduction would still exceed hospital capacity by 700%.
Cuomo's New York model that predicted 30,000 additional ventilators absolutely incorporated lockdown measures, if they didn't they have some serious explaining to do.
Of course I still agree a lockdown was needed, and agree the lockdown did about as well as it could. But is there any reason to not revisit data and determine if we could do better?
And, remember disease models did not just predict unmitigated spread. They absolutely incorporated percentages of social distancing into their models. The original imperial college study predicted that a high income county with around 50% social contact reduction would still exceed hospital capacity by 700%.
Cuomo's New York model that predicted 30,000 additional ventilators absolutely incorporated lockdown measures, if they didn't they have some serious explaining to do.
Of course I still agree a lockdown was needed, and agree the lockdown did about as well as it could. But is there any reason to not revisit data and determine if we could do better?
[0] https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-coronavirus-hospitalizatio... [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/13/coronavirus-p... [2] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/14/dfc_ceo_t...