> It seems we are all attributing this to a successful lockdown rather than considering other scenarios
The curve in parts of the US without a strong lockdown isn't flattening. NYC just dominated the counts so much that it makes the whole country look like it is flattening if you don't break things out. There's similar indications in data from international experience
So, there's a lot more basis for conclusions than “anti-tiger rock” situation.
The curve has flattened i Sweden too, despite the lack of strong lock down. Countries are different and so on, still I think it is way to early to conclude that there is a causative effect between lock downs and reduced virus spread. My own theory is that improved hand hygiene is what stopped the spread but we'll see what the future data says.
The curve in parts of the US without a strong lockdown isn't flattening. NYC just dominated the counts so much that it makes the whole country look like it is flattening if you don't break things out. There's similar indications in data from international experience
So, there's a lot more basis for conclusions than “anti-tiger rock” situation.