>ER admissions are down 50% or more depending in county.
This isn't as significant as you might think...
There is a large (very large in some communities) percentage of ER visits that aren't for real emergencies; rather, they are used for routine stuff, for which people with good insurance would go to their pediatrician or Urgent Care Clinic.
If you are broke, have crappy or no insurance, and can't afford a scrip of antibiotics, when your kid gets a fever or sore throat, you go to the ER. That's routine for -- I would bet -- hundreds of thousands of people throughout the year.
OTOH, if I have a really nasty cold which doesn't share symptoms of coronavirus, I am absolutely NOT going to the ER or urgent care even though I normally would. The urgent care center near my house is full hazmat suits and a tent outside to do front line covid screening.
I think the effect you're describing does exist, but its certainly not the whole story. The fact is as well there's PLENTY of actual data available on this so we need not even be extrapolating based on our assumptions. The problem is any data that doesn't line up with our assumptions gets discarded because we don't know which datasets are good and reliable.
"I am absolutely NOT going to the ER or urgent care even though I normally would"
That's a very dangerous assumption to make. Most hospitals in US are not overwhelmed. People should not be scared to receive necessary healthcare. The public messaging from authorities (and the media) should reflect that. At the very least, contact ER or urgent care (or better yet, your primary care physician if you have one), and follow their direction.
This isn't as significant as you might think... There is a large (very large in some communities) percentage of ER visits that aren't for real emergencies; rather, they are used for routine stuff, for which people with good insurance would go to their pediatrician or Urgent Care Clinic.
If you are broke, have crappy or no insurance, and can't afford a scrip of antibiotics, when your kid gets a fever or sore throat, you go to the ER. That's routine for -- I would bet -- hundreds of thousands of people throughout the year.