The simulation doesn’t take into account new strains. Coronavirus mutates at least once a year. It’s likely there will be strains that are similarly contagious, but with higher or lower case fatality rates.
Prior pandemic case fatality rates were 10x what we’re seeing with COVID-19.
Also, in 1918, shelter in place contributed to a W shaped pandemic, where the second wave was much more deadly, and also killed lots of kids and young adults.
If more people in those age groups had been infected in the first wave, many fewer people would have died in total.
Prior pandemic case fatality rates were 10x what we’re seeing with COVID-19.
Also, in 1918, shelter in place contributed to a W shaped pandemic, where the second wave was much more deadly, and also killed lots of kids and young adults.
If more people in those age groups had been infected in the first wave, many fewer people would have died in total.