Let me explain a bit better. Who is getting it now and requiring medical attention might not be the same going forward. There are a limited number of high risk people. High risk people is not everyone.
For example, I heard a new report that said the Bronx NYC has the highest per capita C19 infaction rate of any community nationally. Freightening? Maybe. How many other communities are similar to the Bronx? Similarly, how many living situations are similar to assisted living facilities. Taking edge and atypical cases and extrapolating that out over 330 million isn't a good model.
Yes. C19 is highly contagious. But we also know - from data - it is more likely to kill the weak than the strong.
The oldest people also die much faster so the ratio of deaths depend on rate of spread.