Like most people I'm 1) not a specialist at all and 2) still have an opinion.
One thing I'm looking at is the excess mortality in a country like Sweden, which had an outbreak (in the top 25 countries by cases) but has not done any lockdown.
> In practice, however, this strategy, which was rejected in the United Kingdom, is leading to a much higher death rate in Sweden than in other Nordic countries.
and they cite a CNN source. But then I look at this data plotted on a log chart and it appears they're leveling out:
The IHME model has been really interesting for Sweden. While Sweden is saying they have it under control the growth rate of their expected deaths is rising faster than any country. It was projected at about 10k by Aug 4 just a couple of weeks ago, but it is now over 17k expected to die in Sweden. Although they seem to be more OK as a country if their senior citizens die.
One thing I'm looking at is the excess mortality in a country like Sweden, which had an outbreak (in the top 25 countries by cases) but has not done any lockdown.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
It's flat.