There's a growing sense that we ("the free world", western countries + usual friends like Japan, Oz, etc) are about to enter a cold war with China, though, following the COVID-19 debacle.[1] The CPC's ultimate responsibility will likely define the magnitude of that (which may range from mild such as tariffs, to hard e.g. Soviet era, passing by sanctions of various degrees, forbidding companies to even trade let alone joint-venture in China, etc).
Independently of diplomacy, the particular conditions of a pandemic seem to call for less dependence on foreign powers, at least on a continental basis (some capacity for autarky on a temporary basis).
Independently of the above, history shows that out of the 16 last times there was a shift in world's first GDP (here US → China), no less than 12 led to war.[2]
Again independently, the general sentiment towards China has deteriorated faster than ever in 2019 (before crisis), due to the White House posture notably (trade tensions, mutual racism/xenophobia).[3][4] This went even lower recently.[5]
A key factor notably, in my opinion, is that anti-China sentiment used to be correlated with age: people over 50 were more likely to have such a view, while younger categories held a more favorable view; but recent events are likely to sway the opinion across the board. Anyone old enough to have a political opinion isn't likely to "forget" COVID-19 or "forgive" wrongdoings in the matter if responsibility is proven in the public eye.
There is little substance to redeem any of these facts, I'm afraid.
____
A personal take on this [Disclaimer: opinion still in flux as information comes in. Strong conviction, but loosely held.]
I don't see how China doesn't lose most of their international credibility in this affair. Once global production and logistics flows are restructured to take China out of the equation (it'll take years, a decade at least I think), it will take an even longer time to come back, if ever (other superpowers, more worthy of trust, may emerge in a generation's time). It will cost the world a lot, may prolong the depression much more than if we looked the other way, but deaths in the 6 figures (possibly an order of magnitude more by then, even two...) is simply unacceptable, reason enough to do it, to isolate them and take the collective hit. We can take it, the combined power of the world minus China is still overwhelmingly capable to drive growth. There are tons of candidates where investment will flock to fund factories, and some of these will come back 'home' for a number of strategic sectors.
I'm afraid China's economic appeal has all but collapsed for this generation (next 10-20 years). I don't think most people realize it yet, but the pile of arguments for a cold war is damning, historically aligned with most precedents, and actually a rare occurrence of too much at once.
(Let us pray there was no malign intent towards the world, for that would likely remove the "cold" adjective above.)
China may just have lost its shot at becoming the world's "leader", and it seems they only have themselves to blame, as their lack of transparency and their negligence for human life are cold hard choices they still keep making, some 30 years after Tiananmen. We hoped China was ready and could change, we thought it would evolve towards a more trustable partner, but instead it maintained its internal dystopia more strongly than ever, and actually engaged actively in trying to change us (remember how, very recently, they were trying to force the NBA and so many corporations to essentially bend to the CPC's propaganda... needless to say, that ship has most likely sailed for good). If we needed a reminder (apparently we did), authoritarianism kills.
So this:
> But good luck with that, since China is a massive trade partner and every country is turning a blind eye to them imprisoning people in concentration camps and harvesting organs. It’s unlikely The States are going to have a change of heart anytime soon.
Seems incredibly anachronic to me. It was true in 2019, but that world is now over, for good.
China may be damaged as other countries try to become less dependent, but the country that has really destroyed its reputation and permanently damaged its credibility and its relationships is the US. I'm afraid that the rest of the world is going to be working very hard to cut the US out.
I didn't want to mix topics, but if you're gonna go there...
As a European, I wholeheartedly agree.
It's not a new sentiment either. The US has grown increasingly hostile towards the world since the turn of the century, Bush Jr.
Needless to say, 45 made things way, way worse, but the US made that choice and is poised to double down come November, despite the criticality of current events. The why and how does not matter to the outside. Dems/GOP blablabla, corruption blablabla, Biden blablabla, Hillary blablabla... who cares? Get your shit together!
It's worrying (at an all-time high as we speak) for foreign states and companies. For many around the world, being too tied to the US has become a liability indeed, adding too much uncertainty (risk) to their bottom line or stability. This is no more acceptable than China's lies and deceit. Humbling reminder that hostility is not without consequence, and pretty much always results in lose-lose outcomes.
Losing the US as a dependable, reliable world leader has been the most tragic loss of this century, in my opinion.
Hey, maybe you're right. I don't care that they care to be honest, I mostly care about our future for now.
But you ask "why should they care?"
Well, I profoundly believe (stressing: belief, no crystal ball here) that no, they won't be able to just shrug it off, they stand to lose a pretty f-ing lot, and it has begun.
Ultimately damaging, delaying or even killing the "Belt and Road" project. That's Xi Jinping's #1 thing, by far the biggest international move they were actively executing, and it will certainly hurt if they lose it (I think the correct phrasing is "now that they've lost it", but let's be conservative here, time will tell).
I think the massive drop in foreign investment, combined with sanctions (or worse) may be huge enough to send them into a depth of economic crisis they hadn't experienced in decades (if only because it takes time to re-profile an economy this vast. A decade or more. They've quite possibly 'doomed' the growth of an entire generation).
We could right now be witnessing China's failure to actually reach #1 GDP (at all, or sustainably beyond momentum). This could be the turning point that cements the USA as #1 for another 1-2 decades.[1]
Considering a big part of Chinese population support for the CPC's is based on the premise of economic growth and ever-higher living standards (that's why they shut up and don't ask for more freedoms or political rights, afaik, because they are content to just see their income rising crazy fast), I don't know what this means for the stability of the CPC there (but surely, 10-20 years of recession is a major, fundamental risk to the very existence of, or compliance to, such an oligarchic model).
But yeah, you may be right. We'll just have to agree to disagree on forecasts for now, which should be easy since none of us predicts the future. And my convictions are, again, strong, but loosely held. We need more data (notably, origin of the virus, cause of the spread, etc).
____
[1]: Assuming the USA doesn't worsen their situation too, which seems, ahem... increasingly less likely as we speak, given the abysmal leadership (I don't know how many deaths from COVID it takes to put this country to its knees, but it sure looks like it's trying hard to get there... so weird).
Not to mention the growing hostility towards all foreign powers almost irregardless of their 'allied' status (as if decades of shared history and partnership suddenly meant nothing anymore...)
This to mean rules apply to all, not just China, and everybody might do well to humbly heed that memo. Including national governments in their handling of the situation.
If you look at their belt and road project from an european point of view on a globe, and not an european centric mercator projection (just use google earth or something like that) and look at the proposed routes there...what do you see?
I see the last leg into europe cut off maybe, but not the rest of the countries along the way which happen to have large populations. And don't seem to care much.
Also Africa.
Furthermore...what should Europe, or any european country do? They voluntarily outsourced much of their production capacity into China. This is going on since decades. I've personally seen/experienced it. Do you think they are capable of resourcing it back in an instant? Could they, with all the environmental standards which are there now?
If US/EU were to tell the rest of the world, in a typical WWI or Cold War "blocks" style fashion, “you're either with us or with China, i.e. against us!”, how many do you think would choose China?
I mean, the West + JP + Oz + etc. is so much bigger than China alone, and the deceitful / lying / financially predatory nature of that country alone is a big deterrent... Not that Europe was better a century ago, or the US as we speak, but...
That's my big fear, tbh. Blocks. Major blocks. If there is too much symmetry in power, it could have dire consequences.
Edit: not "an instant", I said 10 years at least (that's how long it takes to setup a whole new major factory + logistics flow afaik).
Indeed, interesting times. I never thought it'd go this fast this soon tbh. COVID-19 really is provoking a major shift, I think, resurfacing much deeper tensions, much wider than a 'mere' pandemic.
Ha, interesting!... We have several common answers.
I might have put Bolsonaro's Brazil in there, along with a strong authoritarian turn (but the lure of wealth is a strong populist stance, especially if you can deliver soon(tm), and China would have huge freed capacity to intake massive partners (factories etc) once the West is gone).
It's striking to me that many could choose China not for China but rather against the US. They say "the devil you know..." but I wonder, if said devil scares the hell out of you, you might just try your luck with another one. (case for Africa notably)
See why I fear blocks... Could devolve into a cold-WWI way too soon way too fast. And from there... ah, better not think ahead too soon.
Ah, don't get me started on Stoicism. It changed my life. Helped me "self-cure" a long nasty trend of seasonal depressions. It's nothing short of a superpower to me, a magical skill. I never even dreamed of having such control over myself. And yet, happiness, here we are.
I tend to spend more time than usual thinking about current events, obviously, but mostly to anticipate, prepare myself, navigate the chaos (should I say 'thrive' even? Yes, I should, and I do).
There's a growing sense that we ("the free world", western countries + usual friends like Japan, Oz, etc) are about to enter a cold war with China, though, following the COVID-19 debacle.[1] The CPC's ultimate responsibility will likely define the magnitude of that (which may range from mild such as tariffs, to hard e.g. Soviet era, passing by sanctions of various degrees, forbidding companies to even trade let alone joint-venture in China, etc).
Independently of diplomacy, the particular conditions of a pandemic seem to call for less dependence on foreign powers, at least on a continental basis (some capacity for autarky on a temporary basis).
Independently of the above, history shows that out of the 16 last times there was a shift in world's first GDP (here US → China), no less than 12 led to war.[2]
Again independently, the general sentiment towards China has deteriorated faster than ever in 2019 (before crisis), due to the White House posture notably (trade tensions, mutual racism/xenophobia).[3][4] This went even lower recently.[5]
A key factor notably, in my opinion, is that anti-China sentiment used to be correlated with age: people over 50 were more likely to have such a view, while younger categories held a more favorable view; but recent events are likely to sway the opinion across the board. Anyone old enough to have a political opinion isn't likely to "forget" COVID-19 or "forgive" wrongdoings in the matter if responsibility is proven in the public eye.
There is little substance to redeem any of these facts, I'm afraid.
____
A personal take on this [Disclaimer: opinion still in flux as information comes in. Strong conviction, but loosely held.]
I don't see how China doesn't lose most of their international credibility in this affair. Once global production and logistics flows are restructured to take China out of the equation (it'll take years, a decade at least I think), it will take an even longer time to come back, if ever (other superpowers, more worthy of trust, may emerge in a generation's time). It will cost the world a lot, may prolong the depression much more than if we looked the other way, but deaths in the 6 figures (possibly an order of magnitude more by then, even two...) is simply unacceptable, reason enough to do it, to isolate them and take the collective hit. We can take it, the combined power of the world minus China is still overwhelmingly capable to drive growth. There are tons of candidates where investment will flock to fund factories, and some of these will come back 'home' for a number of strategic sectors.
I'm afraid China's economic appeal has all but collapsed for this generation (next 10-20 years). I don't think most people realize it yet, but the pile of arguments for a cold war is damning, historically aligned with most precedents, and actually a rare occurrence of too much at once.
(Let us pray there was no malign intent towards the world, for that would likely remove the "cold" adjective above.)
China may just have lost its shot at becoming the world's "leader", and it seems they only have themselves to blame, as their lack of transparency and their negligence for human life are cold hard choices they still keep making, some 30 years after Tiananmen. We hoped China was ready and could change, we thought it would evolve towards a more trustable partner, but instead it maintained its internal dystopia more strongly than ever, and actually engaged actively in trying to change us (remember how, very recently, they were trying to force the NBA and so many corporations to essentially bend to the CPC's propaganda... needless to say, that ship has most likely sailed for good). If we needed a reminder (apparently we did), authoritarianism kills.
So this:
> But good luck with that, since China is a massive trade partner and every country is turning a blind eye to them imprisoning people in concentration camps and harvesting organs. It’s unlikely The States are going to have a change of heart anytime soon.
Seems incredibly anachronic to me. It was true in 2019, but that world is now over, for good.
I agree with everything else you said.
____
[1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3081601/co...
[2]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/
[3]: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/08/13/u-s-views-of-c...
[4]: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/12/05/attitudes-towa...
[5]: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-public-opinion-toward-c...