Wasn't quite a lot of what you say about China true about the USA in the 19th century? Not saying the cases are the same and I am skeptical of grand historical theses, but I don't think you can glibly dismiss China either.
Personally I see China replacing a superpower, but the superpower being replaced is Russia. Russia is by nearly every metric declining and much faster than the USA.
The question is whether the USA will remain the dominant superpower or whether China will be a serious challenger by mid century. To really challenge the USA China would have to export more than just goods and services but also ideas and culture. I see a little bit of ideas being exported but very little cultural export happening.
Russia is objectively no longer a superpower but a shell of its past self.
US after Cold War and before 2008 will be remembered as a very special country by history. China or the post great recession US can only imagine that power and influence, they can't match it.
That was kinda my point. We had a brief period of a unipolar world with the US as the sole superpower. I don't think that's stable or likely to persist, and it looks like China is already filling the empty niche.
I think the 21st century will have China and the US as the two superpowers and the rivalry will be mostly economic and technological rather than military (via build up and proxy wars) and propagandistic.
I don't think it was the Great Recession that cut America down to size. I think it was the Iraq war. We "won" but it was a classic Pyrrhic victory that cost us both a ton of capital (I wonder if it caused the Great Recession) and our reputation on the world stage. We basically burned our Cold War victory on that. Bush II was the worst president of the last 100 years, in my opinion worse than Nixon and worse than Trump has been so far in terms of actual damage done. I don't think there would be a President Trump either were it not for that damage.
But that doesn’t really matter. It’s like if you have a net worth of $50 and an income of $100, but your buddies have an income of $100,000 and a debt of $70,000
From all that I've read, corruption is why Africa has been so poor and missed out on much of the development of the 20th century. Why bother investing in anything when it will just be stolen by the local strong man?
Personally I see China replacing a superpower, but the superpower being replaced is Russia. Russia is by nearly every metric declining and much faster than the USA.
The question is whether the USA will remain the dominant superpower or whether China will be a serious challenger by mid century. To really challenge the USA China would have to export more than just goods and services but also ideas and culture. I see a little bit of ideas being exported but very little cultural export happening.