R0 estimated to be 2 - 4. Fatality rate: 0.1 - 3%.
This was the first information I saw that helped me understand why this was more than just a bad flu. Still didn't truly understand it at that point, at least the way I do now that we're experiencing the consequences of failing to contain it.
In pre-print on Feb 7, this paper initially estimated R0 to be somewhere between 4.7 and 6.6. People dismissed it as being not possible. It was never picked up by the MSM.
Now we're seeing from the both the real world and other studies that it's pretty plausible.
I ran some SEIRD epidemiological simulations (I'm not an expert nor in that field), but the death rate in the NY region was indicating a R0 between 4 and 6, not the 2.5 or so I've seen in a bunch of places. Obviously, population density is a factor in that number as well. I'm trying to aggregate forecasts for the US on this website if anyone is interested: https://www.unitarity.com/app/challenges/us-coronavirus-outb...
Basic math, knowing population density, and then that paper was my "oh shit" moment. Got some half respirators and 300 rolls of toilet paper over the next week.
The toilet paper wasn't to prepare for a post-apocalyptic world. It was because I knew that was the first thing other idiots would buy when news of this thing hit your average Joe :)
Maybe on average, but it sounds like the variance is more extreme. I've heard enough horror stories of 30-somethings with no health problems being on death's door from this thing that I don't want to risk it, when I might for flu season (plus, there's a flu shot). I don't want to stop with the physical distancing until there's an effective anti-viral treatment.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-co...
R0 estimated to be 2 - 4. Fatality rate: 0.1 - 3%.
This was the first information I saw that helped me understand why this was more than just a bad flu. Still didn't truly understand it at that point, at least the way I do now that we're experiencing the consequences of failing to contain it.