>The global public cloud computing spending was $229 billion in 2019 and will grow to $500 billion in 2023, according to IDC.
So I decided to check on the article itself [1].
>"Adoption of public (shared) cloud services continues to grow rapidly as enterprises, especially in professional services, telecommunications, and retail......
Basically what IDC labels as cloud isn't what is being discussed in the blog, or in the HN comment section which is pretty much strictly IaaS business. The cloud from IDC includes SaaS. Things like ERP and CRM.
And they even said this
>Software as a Service (SaaS) will be the largest category of cloud computing, capturing more than half of all public cloud spending in throughout the forecast. SaaS spending,
Which basically makes the blog and ~60 comments on HN so far irrelevant. The absolute vast majority of growth are going into SaaS, aka Microsoft's Exchange, Dynamic 365, Office 365, SalesForce etc....
What about IaaS?
>IaaS...., will also be the fastest growing category of cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 32.0%.
That is great. Until you look at the number closely,
>China will experience the fastest growth in public cloud services spending over the five-year forecast period with a 49.1% CAGR. Latin America will also deliver strong public cloud spending growth with a 38.3% CAGR.
What that means is that the CAGR, while impressive, will mostly be focused on market that are not current well served, China, India, Latin America, South East Asia. Of Course Europe and NA are also growing, but likely at a comparatively lower pace.
All these are 3 years from now, a very short period of time in terms of infrastructure building. Is this far too late in the Game for Facebook? Do they have a long terms sustainability plan? As we have been shown again and again, Enterprise Tech moves very slowly and tends to stick with big brand or long time partners. One can look at Google Vs Microsoft as example.
It seems the money right now is on HPC, AI, Scientific Computing, Deep Learning, all these seems to have infinite appetite of computation power that even with 1.4nm by 2026 the performance still would not have satisfy needs.
But what about normal Web Server usage? Are we close to its peak?
The growth in Cloud is partly ( or mostly ) driven by Smartphone, the world went from 1.5 billion internet user using it during free time to near 5 billion user using it All the time. Smartphone sales, and user growth has slow down, IaaS usually being lagging behind in supply, are we nearing the end of the growth curve? ( Excluding Scientific Computing Needs )
Remember a lot of these are talking in Dollar terms, 3 years from now the same dollar should have bought you 50% more computational power. And that is excluding any possible disruption from ARM.
So I decided to check on the article itself [1].
>"Adoption of public (shared) cloud services continues to grow rapidly as enterprises, especially in professional services, telecommunications, and retail......
Basically what IDC labels as cloud isn't what is being discussed in the blog, or in the HN comment section which is pretty much strictly IaaS business. The cloud from IDC includes SaaS. Things like ERP and CRM.
And they even said this
>Software as a Service (SaaS) will be the largest category of cloud computing, capturing more than half of all public cloud spending in throughout the forecast. SaaS spending,
Which basically makes the blog and ~60 comments on HN so far irrelevant. The absolute vast majority of growth are going into SaaS, aka Microsoft's Exchange, Dynamic 365, Office 365, SalesForce etc....
What about IaaS?
>IaaS...., will also be the fastest growing category of cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 32.0%.
That is great. Until you look at the number closely,
>China will experience the fastest growth in public cloud services spending over the five-year forecast period with a 49.1% CAGR. Latin America will also deliver strong public cloud spending growth with a 38.3% CAGR.
What that means is that the CAGR, while impressive, will mostly be focused on market that are not current well served, China, India, Latin America, South East Asia. Of Course Europe and NA are also growing, but likely at a comparatively lower pace.
All these are 3 years from now, a very short period of time in terms of infrastructure building. Is this far too late in the Game for Facebook? Do they have a long terms sustainability plan? As we have been shown again and again, Enterprise Tech moves very slowly and tends to stick with big brand or long time partners. One can look at Google Vs Microsoft as example.
It seems the money right now is on HPC, AI, Scientific Computing, Deep Learning, all these seems to have infinite appetite of computation power that even with 1.4nm by 2026 the performance still would not have satisfy needs.
But what about normal Web Server usage? Are we close to its peak?
The growth in Cloud is partly ( or mostly ) driven by Smartphone, the world went from 1.5 billion internet user using it during free time to near 5 billion user using it All the time. Smartphone sales, and user growth has slow down, IaaS usually being lagging behind in supply, are we nearing the end of the growth curve? ( Excluding Scientific Computing Needs )
Remember a lot of these are talking in Dollar terms, 3 years from now the same dollar should have bought you 50% more computational power. And that is excluding any possible disruption from ARM.
[1] https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45340719