My point is that if the web didn't evolve, then Windows would have further cemented its position. If people made Windows apps instead of websites, then other operating systems and mobile wouldn't have taken off as much because fewer people would make multiple apps than the number of people in our world who made cross-platform web apps.
Also, all of those features that rkagerer complained about would be even more abusable, because in general, Windows apps don't have to ask for permissions to those things. I don't get how someone could complain that it's bad for a web app to be able to ask for permissions to their contacts, and would prefer to have a native app (that can get them silently by default).
Maybe you could replace "Windows" with "iOS" in this hypothetical, which would improve the permissions side of things, but I think it's likely that Windows was only supplantable in the first place because of the popularity of things being on the cross-platform web instead of on native Windows apps, and especially as someone without an iOS device, I'd be pretty sour if the effort on the web went purely into a locked-down non-open platform I didn't have. I think the way the web has approached being a universal open-source/open-standard app platform is extremely exciting. The fact that web app buttons look different than iOS/etc buttons is a small price compared to the benefits, and is the sort of thing that can probably be solved within the model once developers think it's important enough to. (I think modern frameworks and/or the web components standard will provide a good base to get more native-like experiences common in the web.)
No OS has "taken off" because of the web. Windows is as cemented on desktop as ever, and ChromeOS (the only post-web desktop OS of note) has a fraction of a percent marketshare.
iOS initially had a web-app-only developer story (the "sweet solution"), but the quality gap between web and native apps was so undeniable that Apple reversed course and shipped a native SDK. It would be no different today.
The quality gap is not about buttons that look different. It's that nothing behaves consistently. Every site does its own custom thing, so users are forced into the lowest common denominator of interactivity (click or tap).
Examples: Gmail has its own fake windows, context menus, dropdowns, drag and drop, key equivalents, etc. and they all fall apart as soon as you try to do anything nontrivial with them. And it's been like this for 15 years, so I don't see any cause for optimism on this front.
Also, all of those features that rkagerer complained about would be even more abusable, because in general, Windows apps don't have to ask for permissions to those things. I don't get how someone could complain that it's bad for a web app to be able to ask for permissions to their contacts, and would prefer to have a native app (that can get them silently by default).
Maybe you could replace "Windows" with "iOS" in this hypothetical, which would improve the permissions side of things, but I think it's likely that Windows was only supplantable in the first place because of the popularity of things being on the cross-platform web instead of on native Windows apps, and especially as someone without an iOS device, I'd be pretty sour if the effort on the web went purely into a locked-down non-open platform I didn't have. I think the way the web has approached being a universal open-source/open-standard app platform is extremely exciting. The fact that web app buttons look different than iOS/etc buttons is a small price compared to the benefits, and is the sort of thing that can probably be solved within the model once developers think it's important enough to. (I think modern frameworks and/or the web components standard will provide a good base to get more native-like experiences common in the web.)