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"No one will be able to time this"

"put your retirement into bonds and hold on"

facepalm




What? That's how you minimize risk because there's a good chance the markets will continue to slide. It's literally why the markets are down - because investors are pulling out and parking their cash in safer havens.


I think you're missing the point "Nobody can time this" and "If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on" are completely at odds. Pulling out of equities to buy bonds is timing this.

People should have an asset allocation, and stick to it. Right now, people should be re-balancing by selling off their now overweight bond allocation to buy equities. What you're suggesting is counter-productive.


Look, until two weeks ago my 401k was tracking 14% gains. By gradually moving it over the last week and last night, I've locked in 10% gains. The alternative would have been 0% gains as of today (market is back about where it was when Trump was elected) and losses in the likely case that the market continues to slide this week.

At this point we have likely entered recession or depression territory. The rebound is unlikely to be instantaneous (unless a convenient cure is found) and when things calm down I can put my money back into the market starting from a 10% locked in gain.


If you are approaching retirement, you should already have a good % of your portfolio in bonds and other lower risk investments. If you have indeed done that, there is little reason to rush off and potentially buy high and sell low right before retirement.

For everyone else not near retirement, most are going to be better served by ignoring the volatility and continuing to invest as usual. Time in the market vs timing the market and all of that jazz.


> What? That's how you minimize risk because there's a good chance the markets will continue to slide.

You don't minimize risk by reacting to daily market fluctuations. You minimize risk by choosing an asset allocation that allows you to ignore those fluctuations.


The market has been dropping for a week. Indicators across the board are long term negative. We are well past the realm of daily market fluctuations.


I don't disagree with your read, but you are certainly trying to time here.


If you're not yet close to retirement, what happens today in the markets will have almost no effect on what your portfolio looks like in 10, 20, 30 years. Making any big changes would be stupid. Maintain a diverse portfolio and basically forget it exists outside of maxing it out every year. This is especially true if you're lazy and have it all in something like a retirement target fund like Vanguard.


Vanguard retirement funds do exactly this for you, what are you talking about?


Yes I mentioned Vanguard, and in fact have a good amount invested in their retirement funds. OP is saying to pivot based on recent news. Those retirement funds adjust on a scale of 40-50 years whereas OP is looking at a month of activity, possibly even just today's 7% drop.


"there's a good chance the markets will continue to slide" By saying that, you are trying to time it (claiming that the bottom is in the future).




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