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I like your optimism and I hope you're right. I don't think Italy, South Korea, Iran are outliers in the sense that there is something fundamentally different going on there though - I think they are just ahead in terms of time. Overall the spread in different countries seems to follow very similar patterns but with different starting dates.

Yes, China did some weird stuff with information in the beginning, but it seems there is not really much reason to suspect they're hiding information anymore [1,2]. The responses by free-er nations have been much milder with more reliance on self-quarantine. Let's hope that that works. And let's hope there will be sufficient testing to stay on top of things.

[1] https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-...

[2] https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-ch...




While the rest of the world is following, we already had the example of quarantine.

We will see what the best strategy will be, the hardest work is now for China, South Korea, Iran and Italy.

The rest will learn from them.




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