Who could have known that using debt to purchase back stock for the purposes of artificially increasing company value without building value would cause a crisis?
The entire world is about to have a supply chain disruption that you can't stoke into recovery using central bank policy. The Fed rarely lowers interest rates without notice. They're spooked.
That is a possible scenario, but not what market participant behavior is predicting. So, you either believe governments, or you believe the flow of trillions of dollars through the capital markets. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, waiting to be discovered.