The most important thing to remember here is that we have ZERO idea how many people are truly infected in China.
The Chinese gov't is publishing totally unreliable numbers on "confirmed". ...but the fact that confirmed cases are popping up all around the world, there is ZERO chance that the true number of infected people is 15,000 in China.
The healthcare system in Wuhan is overwhelmed. The hospital are turning away patients with symptoms without evening screening unless their deathly ill due to a lack of resources:
"Coronavirus Pummels Wuhan, a City Short of Supplies and Overwhelmed" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavi...
which means that the statistics are going to badly off at this point.
The Chinese gov't is publishing totally unreliable numbers on "confirmed". ...but the fact that confirmed cases are popping up all around the world, there is ZERO chance that the true number of infected people is 15,000 in China.
That just doesn't make sense statistically.