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The irony is that an increase in stock price is supposed to reflect future value (of dividends).

In this case, the 72% does not accurately reflect the increase in value, unless they almost double their dividend for quite a few years after the whole Chinese pork fiasco.

Market effect are exaggerated by investors and speculators. (Read: amplified, not fabricated [usually].)




Why should we believe that you're right and the rest of the market is wrong?


The rest of the market knows this and uses it to make money.

I am not sure what you mean in terms of someone being right and someone being wrong.

Edit: The point about future value of dividends is a common approach. My personal addition was that 72% is probably an exaggerated effect, but these kind of swings are to be expected, with later corrections. The point about irony is that when people buy shares, they follow the price of sale of one share, they don't usually try to calculate the future value of dividends. A case in point would be Amazon. However, with Amazon, people expect dividends at some unspecified point in the future.


And how much money did you invest based on that thesis?


None. The correction would not really warrant a short. And moreover it could take a long time to happen. I don't know enough about how people think about pigs to know whether to short and at what time.




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