What you say is technically true, but given how easy it is to pivot nowadays, and the fact that YC prides itself on accepting teams even pre-product, this "billion dollar business" line seems like a great way to reject anyone they want for any reason.
I agree, and I have no problem with that. What I do have a problem with is telling applicants how they make decisions in a nice fair way, when in fact they use another, “secret” rubric that’s based more on brand and connections. If you’re going to evaluate folks, don't lie about how you're doing it.
I’m not sure how it would benefit them to “lie” about their criteria, unless they were secretly racist or something (clearly not the case). If anything they would want to encourage the kind of founders they actually accept, to make the process more efficient.
I’m sure the process isn’t entirely fair, since picking winners at such an early stage is incredibly hard and they have so little time for each candidate, but I’m also sure that they _try_ to be as fair as possible.
And I write this as someone that has been rejected about half a dozen times...
They accept founders with a cornucopia of backgrounds. From people with barely an idea to people with running businesses.
I would presume the farther along your business is and the more stuck you are on that particular model the more the evaluation leans toward the business growth metrics.
When we did YC we were accepted with an idea, a landing page with some email signups, and almost a customer. They asked hard hitting questions in the interview. We did have industry connections, some unique insights, and previous startup experience.
After being "inside" (as a company founder at least) and seeing everything they write about on the "outside", I take what YC says at face value. They earned trust.