"Leaving" or not, there's no way he or the trio or the board would allow the notion that he'll be leaving in the post. I side with the author. I just don't think he would be stepping down if he intends to be the chairman for more than a few years. Also, if history is any indication, before he joined Google, he only assumed the role of chief strategist for a year or so after relinquishing from Novell's CEO position.
The one place I see him going is Microsoft since he was credited to have turned Novell around during his CEO years there. No one would argue his abilities at Google as well. Microsoft desperately needed someone more capable than a car salesman. In some ways, it would also be a more challenging task (and something new) for him to turn Microsoft around than for him to compete with FB and Apple at Google. One thing for sure, Microsoft would be incredibly lucky to get him since I don't envision anyone else capable AND willing. My 2nd guess would be Facebook, but I don't think Mark wants that unless he truly sees him as a more capable CEO.
In order for Schmidt to go to Microsoft, Ballmer would have to be forced out. I don't see that happening, given the success of win7, the xbox 360, and potentially wp7. I think wp7 would have to be an unmitgated failure for the board to consider pushing him out.
I agree that Schmidt would be a better choice than Ballmer, but I don't see Microsoft's board making that push barring some sort of catalyst.
"In order for Schmidt to go to Microsoft, Ballmer would have to be forced out"
Not only that, but Schmidt would also have to win the confidence of Microsoft veterans, some of whom have been rumoured to have CEO ambitions (e.g. Sinofsky). Despite his stellar credentials, this may be harder than it looks. Ray Ozzie (whose vision and ideas would probably align with Schmidt's) stepped down as a CSA after all. And I am not sure if Schmidt understands the consumer space well enough to drive Windows, Windows Phone and Xbox. I am not sure he gets business well enough to drive Office either. He gets engineering, and that helped him lead Google this far, but engineering is not enough if you want to lead companies such as Microsoft and Apple.
Yes, win7 was a success, but weighted with Vista's failure & its 5 years to debut, I won't call it so. wp7? we still have to wait it out, but again, it'll have to be weighted along with Kin's billion dollar failure. xbox360 does not define Microsoft. I think you're looking more at what he did, which isn't much in the past 10+ years, in terms of both market penetration (except for IE, but it's declining) and in terms of market capital, instead of what could have been done in hands of more capable person. If Eric Schmidt or say Steve Jobs were running Microsoft in the past 10 years, I don't think Microsoft would languish as is. If the board had been doing its job, it had to have planed his exit for years. Why it hasn't happened yet could be lack of better candidate or lack of excuse like HP's dismiss of Hurd.
I think it's hard to even begin to understand how deeply the Sherman Act has shaped the last decade at Microsoft. One man's languishing is another's staying out of trouble while continuing to rake in massive profits.
If they were going to force him out they would have done so after Vista/Kin. There are plenty of people inside MS who would have been suitable for the position, and there've been capable CEOs on the market in the last 4 years.
To say Schmidt turned Novell around seems a pretty generous reading. Certainly Novell didn't return to broad industry relevance as they were trying to.
The one place I see him going is Microsoft since he was credited to have turned Novell around during his CEO years there. No one would argue his abilities at Google as well. Microsoft desperately needed someone more capable than a car salesman. In some ways, it would also be a more challenging task (and something new) for him to turn Microsoft around than for him to compete with FB and Apple at Google. One thing for sure, Microsoft would be incredibly lucky to get him since I don't envision anyone else capable AND willing. My 2nd guess would be Facebook, but I don't think Mark wants that unless he truly sees him as a more capable CEO.