So it's not obvious to me that Go computers will be at a world-class level in a shorter timeframe than 20 years.
Don't get me wrong: I agree with you 100% on this. I'd more likely go further and wager against that happening. Go has an absolutely silly branching factor, no solid method of pruning, and no straightforward position evaluation function. Material doesn't work nearly as well as it does in Chess, and the sheer amount of information contained in the board makes the "mean value of this board position in past grandmaster games" approach completely infeasible.
My only point is that researchers are, indeed, making progress. It's just very limited.
Don't get me wrong: I agree with you 100% on this. I'd more likely go further and wager against that happening. Go has an absolutely silly branching factor, no solid method of pruning, and no straightforward position evaluation function. Material doesn't work nearly as well as it does in Chess, and the sheer amount of information contained in the board makes the "mean value of this board position in past grandmaster games" approach completely infeasible.
My only point is that researchers are, indeed, making progress. It's just very limited.