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Reminds me of the book "Good To Great". The author took a bunch of successful companies, and found patterns that they all had in common. But just because all these companies did X, didn't mean that made them successful. It could've been because of survivorship bias. So yes, most business/startup advice is curve overfitting, imo.



I don't recall "Good to Great" coming to this conclusion - it was the later critical pieces. (Poor guy - it was a lot of analysis!)

IIRC, the book "First, Break all the Rules" actually challenged the "Good to Great" methodology a bit on this point.

(The other point, IIRC, was that first you have to find the right questions, before the right answers can be considered).




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