Based on your assumptions, he is arrogant for making such a ridiculous prediction in the first place. He is pretending to know the buying preferences of millions of people along with the performance of every designer in the future that could make an android.
If it came out of anyone else's mouth but John Gruber, no one would care.
Which of my assumptions makes him arrogant for doing anything?
I'm guessing the second one is what you mean.
Let's also assume that anything he believes is true is because he has thought about it and is confident that he is correct.
he is arrogant for making such a ridiculous prediction in the first place. He is pretending to know the buying preferences of millions of people along with the performance of every designer in the future that could make an android.
You suppose that to think about something (note here that I only said that he had thought about it, and considered himself to be right), and be confident in your own mind that you're right, you need to have perfect evidence on every variable. I disagree. On his blog, Gruber acts as a pundit, and that is expected of the material he writes, he's not presenting what he says as scientific fact.
It is that way because fanboys like you vote up everything that comes out of his blog.
His predictions also come true for things coming out of Apple since he is part of their target demographic. Making a claim about Android is out of his area of expertise.
Because unless he's God himself and has perfect information about everything it can't be possible that every SPECULATION he makes turns out to be true?
