The key is not to speculate, but to figure out how to ask so that you can have a discussion about what they feel and need.

You have a theory, but even if you are a good people reader, and even if you are mostly right, you are very likely to be wrong in many small but important ways. I'm sure you can recall instances where someone was right about you in general but wrong in small ways that really mattered to you.

Even if you have a guess, ask instead.