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This is actually pretty genius. Perhaps the Chinese economy is recession-proof. But I doubt it. It's at the height of a 30-year bull market. It doesn't seem insane that a downturn could happen.

And the party seems to be pretty weak when the Chinese economy isn't doing swimmingly. If things finally do turn sour, what a convenient time. You can just blame it on someone else.




The Chinese economy has had plenty of recessions in the last 30 years: 1990, 1998, even 2008 was probably a dip in real terms. It’s not like the economy hasn’t gone sour before.


This time I wonder if some businesses are moving out of China due to the instability of the relationship with the US and China, not to mention the future instabilities to come.


I don’t think so, not yet anyways. Trump is probably a one term president, and most companies are thinking longer term. 1989-90 was much much worse.


I don’t think so

Think again.

GoPro moving some production out of China to avoid US tariffs: https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/10/tech/gopro-china-tariffs/inde...


So what? Does one data point make the case for a sustained long term trend?


It's a single data point because I'm not going to do your research for you.

It's something that happened recently and was mentioned on HN, that's why I provided the courtesy of posting that for you.


Yes, nor am I going to do your research either. The fallacy of the data point is still a thing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization


I can tell you that Caterpillar has planned to move almost all production out of China with the majority coming back to the US. They're even spinning up casting plants that have been shuttered for over a decade because of this.


Fyi Australia's economy has also been without a recession in 30 odd years




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