When I think about how volatile our biggest systems ( finance, politics etc) and how complex they are I first get too confused to understand them, then frustrated, then I lose hope.

Do we just throw stuff at the wall and hope something sticks? Or is it all just a big gamble?

Between all the pollsters, financial forecasts, weather forecasts or even project planning, is it just a game of chance if you are correct in your assumptions and calculations?

"One week later you receive another letter from the same firm, but this time they claim a different stock is about to drop in price. You go back to the first letter, and, lo and behold, they were right. The stock went up".

This is a definition of "right" with which I was previously unfamiliar.

I don't follow. They said they received:

- letter A in week one saying stock $A is going up - letter B in week two that stock $B is going down; OP checks stock $A and it did indeed go up

Etc.

It was a little complex in the wording, but the point was clear IMO.