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Here's a brief white-paper from Sandisk on how to calculate expected life times of a flash drive based on typical usage with wear leveling:

http://www.sandisk.com/Assets/File/OEM/WhitePapersAndBrochur...

Note that in general there is two types of NAND flash, SLC (single-level cell) and MLC (multi-level cell). MLC is cheaper and denser, but isn't as fast and doesn't last as long as SLC.

His cheap USB drive was most likely MLC so it's pretty amazing that it lasted for about 90 million write cycles.

http://www.oempcworld.com/support/SLC_vs_MLC.htm




The flash controller was levelling those 90 million writes across large numbers of cells.




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