Take, for instance, statically-hosted HTTP: if I'm, say, hosting at AWS and I want to switch to Netlify, it's trivial - I just change the place I upload my files to and switch the DNS. To me that's a complete success in decentralization - there's no hassle, no compatibility problems, no one other than me even knows that I've made the change.
So I don't see it as federated being a lost cause, I see it as a protocol needing to be an HTTP not an email.
For Edsu, it's something that I've considered at every design choice. For instance, the data storage format fully specified and trivial, and hopefully therefore trivially transferable. And there's features like transparent proxying/forwarding of usernames. But I'll absolutely admit I've not been able to completely mitigate it, aside from urging people to BYOD (Bring Your Own Domain).
However, a lot of it comes down factors that aren't the protocol itself. I'm hoping that Edsu's userbase is mostly just the open source community, with its consolidation-hostile "herding cats" nature. When Facebook first showed up, it struck me as a home page for people who didn't want to deal with HTML. So in a way, it was a bifurcation of HTML users, with the technical and non-technical people each going their own way. And in the technical people's world, HTML stayed a commodity.
SSH is another successful federated protocol - but only in the technical community. My family members don't use SSH, and that's just fine with me. That's one big advantage relative to alternatives that focus on social networking - Edsu is useful even if only a minority of people use it. And even email had 22 years before Gmail happened - if we've got 2 decades before we need to come up with a better thing than Edsu because the eternal September boat finally docked, I think that's fine.
So for sure, the gestalt at the moment is that full decentralization is the way to go. Edsu is a hedge - a bet against that. Federated is the devil we know, and there's successful examples of it avoiding its biggest problem. On the other hand, I think full decentralization's challenges are still unknown, and so A) it's unclear if it's any more resistant to centralization (a la Coinbase), and B) it might have other emergent bugbears that are an even bigger problem.
Don't let any counter argument ever stop you. Parallel experiments are critical for success.
With that said, can't we say that the federated experiment has already played out? Particularly, in email?
What new innovation or changes do you think will make the story play out differently this time around, versus outright P2P/decentralization?
Thanks!