I have a feeling that SoftBank would be $1 trillion organization by the end of 2030. Let me explain why. The entire magic here lies in the ability to through lots and lots of arrows and this ability is gained only when you have reached a critical mass in terms of fund size. As an example, here is YC facts:
YC started in: 2005
Number of companies funded (2017): 1,450
Approximate investment: $200M
Valuation of all companies: $80B
People here will be quick to point out that there is a difference between valuation and realized cash. Also that there is pg magic that is missing in other funds. For the first objection, let’s cut down valuation to just 25%of what they claim, ie, $20B. For the second objection, I had say there have been couple of semi-scientific studies that pointed out that YC is doing just 10-20% better than other funds of same size and that predicting startup success if futile and that your only real recourse is to have lots of arrows.
So timided down YC data suggests that if you have fund of certain critical size you can ignite the chain reaction and watch the magic of compounded growth. YC has showed approximately 100X return over 10 years. There is no other financial vehicle that does this.
YC started in: 2005
Number of companies funded (2017): 1,450
Approximate investment: $200M
Valuation of all companies: $80B
People here will be quick to point out that there is a difference between valuation and realized cash. Also that there is pg magic that is missing in other funds. For the first objection, let’s cut down valuation to just 25%of what they claim, ie, $20B. For the second objection, I had say there have been couple of semi-scientific studies that pointed out that YC is doing just 10-20% better than other funds of same size and that predicting startup success if futile and that your only real recourse is to have lots of arrows.
So timided down YC data suggests that if you have fund of certain critical size you can ignite the chain reaction and watch the magic of compounded growth. YC has showed approximately 100X return over 10 years. There is no other financial vehicle that does this.