> More importantly probability informs you about how many times you should expect an event to occur, not what to do with this information if the event does or does not arise.
Bayesian probability absolutely tells you what to do when evidence of an event arises: Bayes' theorem precisely tells you how to update your certainty when evidence arises (and "seeing" an event is only fairly strong but not certain evidence of its occurrence).
Bayesian probability absolutely tells you what to do when evidence of an event arises: Bayes' theorem precisely tells you how to update your certainty when evidence arises (and "seeing" an event is only fairly strong but not certain evidence of its occurrence).