Almost all reasearch domains live on a log curve; a little bit gets you a lot to start with, but eventually you exhaust the easy solutions and a lot of work gets you very little improvement.
You’re arguing we haven’t reached the plateau at the top yet, but you’ve offered no meaningful evidence that is the case.
There are real world indicators that we are reaching diminishing returns for investment in compute and research now.
The ‘winter’ becomes a thing when it becomes apparent to investors that their financial bets are based off nothing more concrete than opinions like yours, when they don’t work out.
Are we there yet? Not sure, myself, I think we can get some more wins from machine generated architectures... but I can’t see any indication that the ‘winter’ isn’t coming sooner or later.
Investment is massively outstripping returns right now... we’ll just have to see if that calms down gradually, or pops suddenly.
History does not have a good story to tell about responsible investors behaving in a reasonable manner and avoiding crashes.
Almost all reasearch domains live on a log curve; a little bit gets you a lot to start with, but eventually you exhaust the easy solutions and a lot of work gets you very little improvement.
You’re arguing we haven’t reached the plateau at the top yet, but you’ve offered no meaningful evidence that is the case.
There are real world indicators that we are reaching diminishing returns for investment in compute and research now.
The ‘winter’ becomes a thing when it becomes apparent to investors that their financial bets are based off nothing more concrete than opinions like yours, when they don’t work out.
Are we there yet? Not sure, myself, I think we can get some more wins from machine generated architectures... but I can’t see any indication that the ‘winter’ isn’t coming sooner or later.
Investment is massively outstripping returns right now... we’ll just have to see if that calms down gradually, or pops suddenly.
History does not have a good story to tell about responsible investors behaving in a reasonable manner and avoiding crashes.