The main reason why not is political viability. Voter ballot initiatives are required to ammend or revise the state constitution. The problem is that voters are selfish and expecting that to change is unreasonable. Not only because of the scale needed but because the degree of selflessness required in exchange for no guarantees is unreasonable to expect.
Existing owners gave a sweetheart deal and are reluctant to raise their own taxes or allow the rate of tax assessment to rise faster, especially when much of the population is in a high desirability high cost area. Their property value is a considerable store of value and they are incentivised to be against further housing. Renters fear that changing the situation would open up further gentrification as if true value is assesed there is no reason not to upscale the property, indeed it would be required to make the value sustainable. It might make things better long term afterwards but when they don't want to stomach the risk in the short term. Add to the love of keeping the area after they moved in and things get deeply personal.
It seems to be a nasty democratic deadlock resulting from the fundamentals of the rules and how they may be changed resulting in the can getting kicked down the road. Prop 13 isn't viable long term nor wise. There are only three ways it can end really, four if we get really fantastic.
First is the unlikely result of a supreme court ruling that invalidates a lesser state constitution. Not likely to make it there and there would be few arguments as to why it is not allowed. It would likely cause a real estate crash in the short term. Even if the legislature holds a paniced mass tax cut much of the damage would already be done un reaction to the explosive real estate tax growth.
The second is if voter balances change to repeal Prop 13. This would likely call for a substantial change to voter populations or things getting bad enough to change minds. It would cause real estate prices to get very unpredictable and volatile but the panic would be lessened by time to prepare for the possibility.
Third would be if the real estate disaster hits first such that there is little resistance to a repeal or it becomes unnecessary as the actual accessment now matches the frozen prices largely. Prior real estate bubbles didn't do it so this would be huge and have global financial ramifications.
Fourth is in the realm of science fiction, reducing housing demand technologically and beyond any ability to restrict to preserve the status quo. Extradimensional living spaces, widespread teleportation, alternate universe copies of California, antigravity houses floating over international waters or other things possible only in imagination.
Existing owners gave a sweetheart deal and are reluctant to raise their own taxes or allow the rate of tax assessment to rise faster, especially when much of the population is in a high desirability high cost area. Their property value is a considerable store of value and they are incentivised to be against further housing. Renters fear that changing the situation would open up further gentrification as if true value is assesed there is no reason not to upscale the property, indeed it would be required to make the value sustainable. It might make things better long term afterwards but when they don't want to stomach the risk in the short term. Add to the love of keeping the area after they moved in and things get deeply personal.
It seems to be a nasty democratic deadlock resulting from the fundamentals of the rules and how they may be changed resulting in the can getting kicked down the road. Prop 13 isn't viable long term nor wise. There are only three ways it can end really, four if we get really fantastic.
First is the unlikely result of a supreme court ruling that invalidates a lesser state constitution. Not likely to make it there and there would be few arguments as to why it is not allowed. It would likely cause a real estate crash in the short term. Even if the legislature holds a paniced mass tax cut much of the damage would already be done un reaction to the explosive real estate tax growth.
The second is if voter balances change to repeal Prop 13. This would likely call for a substantial change to voter populations or things getting bad enough to change minds. It would cause real estate prices to get very unpredictable and volatile but the panic would be lessened by time to prepare for the possibility.
Third would be if the real estate disaster hits first such that there is little resistance to a repeal or it becomes unnecessary as the actual accessment now matches the frozen prices largely. Prior real estate bubbles didn't do it so this would be huge and have global financial ramifications.
Fourth is in the realm of science fiction, reducing housing demand technologically and beyond any ability to restrict to preserve the status quo. Extradimensional living spaces, widespread teleportation, alternate universe copies of California, antigravity houses floating over international waters or other things possible only in imagination.