True. He really believes it (and he might be very right about it, i am not discussing that point), but the essay would have been more powerful coming out from somebody that doesn't directly benefit so much from it.
A not so great analogy; would be real estate agents telling you "it is always a great time to buy a house", or "buying a house is a great investment" etc..
Clearly a conflict of interest. And, just because a real estate agent buys a house himself, doesn't make him necessary right.
Anyways, I still think Facebook will do great, but 15 billions is a strech. Maybe it would be sticky for a long time, but I still remember, when everybody I knew, my age, was using ICQ in high-school, then AIM in college, (you couldn't survive without it at campus), and then slowly people moved away from it, and now I barely use it. Maybe, once people added everybody they know, and the novelty wears off, facebook will slowly fade also. Who knows.
He gives verifiable evidence, uses clear logic, and doesn't try to disguise the opinions. Worrying about conflict of interest is more or less ad hominem in this case. It's a mild curiosity worth knowing, but that's all.
That would be if a FriendFeed user wrote this article. Paul is like the home builder or developer. He has product that he needs to move and he's marketing. (I'm sure he believes it too, but that is the effect of his writing. But it's no different than pg writing about startups or Joel writing about issue tracking)
The benefit he's selling isn't one that friendfeed users get. Only the owners of friendfeed as a company can monetize the social graph. I don't think friendfeed is looking for acquisition, so I see the financial value of social graphs as a benefit (or potential benefit) that he owns himself, not as one he needs to sell.
A not so great analogy; would be real estate agents telling you "it is always a great time to buy a house", or "buying a house is a great investment" etc..
Clearly a conflict of interest. And, just because a real estate agent buys a house himself, doesn't make him necessary right.
Anyways, I still think Facebook will do great, but 15 billions is a strech. Maybe it would be sticky for a long time, but I still remember, when everybody I knew, my age, was using ICQ in high-school, then AIM in college, (you couldn't survive without it at campus), and then slowly people moved away from it, and now I barely use it. Maybe, once people added everybody they know, and the novelty wears off, facebook will slowly fade also. Who knows.