I think he underestimates the power of domain specific languages. It may be hard to program with a general pupose language, but I think we'll soon see trees that look more like:
Application -> Game -> Sports Game -> Resembles Basketball ...
And then you get a whole bunch of stuff dropped on you that starts as a basketball game, with constructs for players, scoring, fouls, etc....
Then people can come and say, "I made this new game. Like basketball, but no free throws, winners outs, dunks are 4 points, and you can tackle the player with the ball".
Sure you can't write any arbitrary thing you want, but I think most people would be happy with how far that gets you.
I remember Game Construction Kit and alike back in the day of 8-bit machines. You could build your own version of Space Invaders, only with aliens smiling and you shooting them down with flowers. Never really took off.
EDIT: this is not to say I don't see a point in your post, just that perhaps games industry is a poor example.
I agree. The game industry is not a great example. Largely because people are a lot more likley to simply by major party games. Mathematica or Matlab are probably better real world examples, although certainly not an app that Joe Plumber would use.
And then you get a whole bunch of stuff dropped on you that starts as a basketball game, with constructs for players, scoring, fouls, etc....
Then people can come and say, "I made this new game. Like basketball, but no free throws, winners outs, dunks are 4 points, and you can tackle the player with the ball".
Sure you can't write any arbitrary thing you want, but I think most people would be happy with how far that gets you.