You have the right idea. That's probably what they will do, but not as a dividend (those are taxed as ordinary income). Instead they will buy back stock, reducing the supply of stock and increasing the price. Long term sales of stock incur a 15% tax rate.
I'm not saying this is good, but this is what they will do.
ahh so the bankers make $$ for an arcane opaque "buyback" I would rather have the $ now and as my apple holdings are in Investment trusts in my ISA I don't pay tax on dividends.
I'm not saying this is good, but this is what they will do.