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To be completely fair, the risk of nuclear war shouldn't be priced into the US equity markets. If a catastrophic nuclear war happens, the only way selling stocks can help you is by excessive short-term spending on frivolous luxuries. The risk/reward profile simply doesn't make sense for even a significant risk to substantially alter investor behavior.



Are you assuming the market is rational?


Nope. The market is adaptive, though. Every time someone sells on a piece of news that "should" be ignored, it trains the rest of the market to "buy the dip".




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