The particular point about incumbent advantage, which admittedly has always been a factor, is particularly poignant in my mind. A lot of the recommendation is that founders shout from the rooftops about what they're working on, but in this climate is the better route to be relatively quiet with a small group of beta testers/a personal network? And go public more feature-rich or stable? If you hit a chord early on an incumbent could shift, even just "enough," and water-down your competitive edge to the point where the slag to viability just isn't realistic.
In theory, yes the incumbent can shift just enough to water-down your competitive edge but a company or a team with this kind of agility are few and far between. Getting a consensus is one of the hardest thing to do, let alone the speed at which you have to execute.
In my experience this is one of the greatest hindrances to corporate evolution. If you or anyone else knows of any research into this phenomenon and how to help groups move beyond it I would love to see it and learn from it.
