I'm a big fan of both companies, but having watched them grow I think the answer to whether or not it is true that Blue Origin is a competitor is, "No, yes, maybe?"
If SpaceX can get Falcon Heavy to work then no, so much of the oxygen will be sucked out of the launch services market that Blue Origin will be hard pressed to compete. At that point. I see them much more likely as a ULA acquisition to insure engine supply rather than a continual drain on Jeff Bezo's net worth.
If on the other hand Falcon Heavy continues to slip, or if their early attempts at launching them are unsuccessful, or they are unable to recover the three boosters (which I think is 'baked in' to the market expectations) then Blue seems to be in a position to take some of the heavy launch business, except that there isn't nearly as much of that business as there is the small/medium launch business.
Finally the dark horse here is the 'previously unexploited used for heavy things in space' which is to say some business or process that is tremendously more competitive in space than it is on Earth which grows the heavy launch business faster than SpaceX can scale up.
I believe I read about a month or so ago that Bezos plans on selling ~$1 billion worth of stock annually to fund BO, I could be misremembering the exact figures though. Even at that burn rate, assuming Amazon continues to do well, I don't think it will be too much of a drain on his wealth. Plus, he seems like a pretty long term thinker so I don't think he'll throw in the towel even in FH captures a big chunk of heavy lift. BO is currently investing around $200 million in a new production facility in Huntsville. I'd say it's more likely that Boeing/LockMart try to rid themselves of ULA than ULA acquiring BO.
Well, at a net worth of approximately 90 billion and assuming a 5% return rate, he can sped 4.5 billion dollars every year forever on the blue origin and never lose a penny.
Bezos started BO around the same time as SpaceX, and has spent just as much money if not more, and accomplished next to nothing. He will need to pour many additional billions in to even make a race of it, the way the BO turtle moves.
Maybe he's hired the rocket guys who can't take SpaceX's speed and like to actually spend evenings at home with their family :)? Only half kidding here.
Just for the sake of argument it's feasible a person can be mentally flexible enough to apply different management standards to retail and rocket science.
Or maybe Bezos didn’t understand orbital mechanics and picked the wrong approach: They went into space and landed again, but they did not go into orbit yet (as far as I know) and landed again. De-orbiting and landing is different from just going straight up and returning to the launch site that is below your feet.
Absurd in the orbital mechanics portion but not the rest. It seems that spacex has chosen the waffle cone, ice cream scoop and add sprinkles later approach whereas BO has focused solely on the sprinkles.
They do it more step by step. But with the BE-4 and BE-3/BE-3U they have developed two fantastic engines that they can both potentially sell for use in orbital rockets.
They are also already far into the development and production of a orbital rocket themselves.
They focus on the cone, and slowly build up. By 2021 they will fly the third biggest rocket in the world with some unique capability.
Musk recently said, while discussing Falcon Heavy difficulties, that he'll be happy if Falcon Heavy clears the tower before exploding[1]. I personally believe orbital tourism will be the next big thing (dark horse as you say).
If SpaceX can get Falcon Heavy to work then no, so much of the oxygen will be sucked out of the launch services market that Blue Origin will be hard pressed to compete. At that point. I see them much more likely as a ULA acquisition to insure engine supply rather than a continual drain on Jeff Bezo's net worth.
If on the other hand Falcon Heavy continues to slip, or if their early attempts at launching them are unsuccessful, or they are unable to recover the three boosters (which I think is 'baked in' to the market expectations) then Blue seems to be in a position to take some of the heavy launch business, except that there isn't nearly as much of that business as there is the small/medium launch business.
Finally the dark horse here is the 'previously unexploited used for heavy things in space' which is to say some business or process that is tremendously more competitive in space than it is on Earth which grows the heavy launch business faster than SpaceX can scale up.