I didn't say anything about anti-dilution.
There are complexities, but as you explain, if you take more money, you need to give the investors something.
If you look purely at the accounting, and ignoring voting rights and other complications, you are right. Dilution doesn't change anything.
IMHO this argument is a case of technically accurate, and completely useless.
It doesn't matter what the value of the company is at the moment of the dilutive event. It matters how that event affects the value of the company when the employee liquidates their stock.
The new round could be very good, but not necessarily. There is no guarantee a more well capitalized version of the company will end up growing faster or larger than the current cap table.
When the employee evaluated their original option grant they should have done an analysis of the business, its market, and future growth potential. Lets say the predicted value of the company is $100M in 10 years.
Lets look at two options:
Option 1 - The company is continuing on its original trajectory. It is running low on runway and needs a cash injection to continue gaining market share for its quest for profitability. The company still looks like a $100M company, if successful.
The new round may not be good for the employee. When you look forward to the eventual liquidity event, the employee now has a smaller piece of the same sized pie. Maybe the company could still reach its goal by tightening its belt a bit.
Option 2 - The company has identified a new market opportunity. They are raising capital to spin up a new project and capitalize the opportunity. If successful, the company now looks like a $10B company in 10 years.
The new round is potentially good for the employee. On liquidation, they will have a little bit smaller piece of a much bigger pie.
> Lets look at two options: Option 1 - The company is continuing on its original trajectory. It is running low on runway and needs a cash injection to continue gaining market share for its quest for profitability. The company still looks like a $100M company, if successful.
>The new round may not be good for the employee. When you look forward to the eventual liquidity event, the employee now has a smaller piece of the same sized pie. Maybe the company could still reach its goal by tightening its belt a bit.
Sure, but not taking the extra round is also bad for the employee, right? If you don't take the round, and the company now looks like a $50M company, then you have the same piece, of a much smaller pie.
>IMHO this argument is a case of technically accurate, and completely useless.
Actually, your statement of "All things being equal, owning more % of a company == more money." ... is what's misleading.
People are cargo-culting the meme that "dilution is bad" and it has the perverse effect of making them think that awareness of it is "financial sophistication."
Your other statement, "Mostly from people trying to sell the idea of a highly dilutive funding round." ... is also misleading.
It's not the "dilutive" effect that's the core issue. It's whether the company needs the funds. If the company needs the investment, it needs the investment. The dilution is a side effect.
If the new investors want too high of a percentage-of-ownership, then yes, it's "highly dilutive" which is tautology. This may also appear like a dilution problem but it's not. It's a financial literacy problem.
The founders are supposed be smart and not sell too much of the company for too little a price! Therefore, I'm not talking about desperate situations of founders getting diluted down to 10% or less which then affects their motivation to run the company. In that case, the company is probably in financial trouble and the other option is to reject the investment which lets employees maintain a non-dilutive ownership of a bankrupt company.
>The new round could be very good, but not necessarily. There is no guarantee [...]
I agree but the backlash against dilution is about expectation of future events whereas your scenario is ex post facto judgement of past outcomes.
For a startup operating in the present moment, do the employees want the company to be able to raise equity financing to help navigate an unknowable future?!? If yes, it means everybody should expect some dilution in exchange for the outside investment.
>Lets look at two options: Option 1 [...] Option 2
Again, for both of your options, the easier and correct focus is shares multiplied by price. In the bad outcome of Option 1, the price went down. In the good outcome of Option 2, the price went up.
Focusing on dilution as some scary boogeyman is backwards since everybody else gets diluted (see Larry Page, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, etc)
Again, to reiterate the Larry Page example:
- Focus on the $3 billion vs $0. This is shares * price. The price is embedded in the "all other things being equal" part that you dismissed. The price is "not equal"!
- Don't focus on the dilution from 50% vs 16%. You can't play a mental game of "if Larry got 50% of $20 billion, that's $10 billion not $3 billion" because for him to keep 50% (dilution is bad), you have to replay history with him attempting to build Google with zero outside investment. It's more likely he'd have a bankrupt company instead of a $20B company since he can only buy a handful of servers by maxing out his credit-cards, and have no money to hire extra employees. This is the literal application of your "all things being equal". That's flawed ex post facto analysis which doesn't take into account the timeline and reasons people choose to dilute ownership / sell equity to capitalize the company at different stages.
If dilution is bad for the employee, then it is also bad for everyone else. If as you say, "the new round may not be good for the employee", then it also means it's not good for the founders and previous VCs. If the founders are not crooks, the intention for the investment round to help make the company better, not worse.
I still think the main source of outrage about dilution is that people think only the employees get diluted. They don't realize that every owner of the company including founders like Larry Page and VCs like Sequoia will get diluted too. All the sentiments of unfairness flow from that fundamental misunderstanding.
> If the company needs the investment, it needs the investment.
Agreed, but it might not. The fact that it is taking the investment does not mean it is needed, or that it is good for all stakeholders. Investors, founders, and employees all have different goals, motivations, and risk profiles. It is also very possible for the board to make a mistake and take funding that is a net negative for the company as a whole.
My problem is with this argument from your original post:
> In fact, dilution is a positive sign.
These are complex situations. Boiling them down to dilution is good, vs dilution is bad just leads to misunderstanding. Which, in my experience, can be the goal of the person making the argument.
I never said dilution is bad. My original comment was in response to your blanket statement that dilution should be assumed to be good.
I am just saying, "Hold on. It isn't so simple."
In the end, I think we are in violent agreement. People should not get hung up on dilution, it a natural part of the startup lifecycle. It is a factor in the equation, but only a factor. As I alluded to originally, it is much more important what the company is planning on doing with the funds.
Personally, I think the outrage about dilution is due to the fact that many new employees don't take the time to fully understand how it all works when they are hired. The single most important thing employees need to understand about dilution is that, if they join an early startup, it will probably happen at some point. Options for 1% of the company doesn't mean you will own 1% at the end.
If you look purely at the accounting, and ignoring voting rights and other complications, you are right. Dilution doesn't change anything.
IMHO this argument is a case of technically accurate, and completely useless.
It doesn't matter what the value of the company is at the moment of the dilutive event. It matters how that event affects the value of the company when the employee liquidates their stock.
The new round could be very good, but not necessarily. There is no guarantee a more well capitalized version of the company will end up growing faster or larger than the current cap table.
When the employee evaluated their original option grant they should have done an analysis of the business, its market, and future growth potential. Lets say the predicted value of the company is $100M in 10 years.
Lets look at two options: Option 1 - The company is continuing on its original trajectory. It is running low on runway and needs a cash injection to continue gaining market share for its quest for profitability. The company still looks like a $100M company, if successful.
The new round may not be good for the employee. When you look forward to the eventual liquidity event, the employee now has a smaller piece of the same sized pie. Maybe the company could still reach its goal by tightening its belt a bit.
Option 2 - The company has identified a new market opportunity. They are raising capital to spin up a new project and capitalize the opportunity. If successful, the company now looks like a $10B company in 10 years.
The new round is potentially good for the employee. On liquidation, they will have a little bit smaller piece of a much bigger pie.